Every Good Idea Will Become a Bad One

I don't think the human brain is good at comprehending the scale of change we've all seen during our lifetimes, especially if you have been around for a while.

I look back at the technology trends that came and went, and as trusted advisors, a lot of us were in positions to tell our employers whether technology A or B was the right decision, and a lot of capital and time were spent on that decision.

Examples: The .NET framework, WPF, Windows Forms, Delphi.

A Pretty Good Track Record

I thought that I had a pretty good track record of picking technologies. Hey! I didn't get burned by Flash, I could see Windows Phone wasn't going anywhere, and don't get me started with Silverlight.

But there were also some technologies I chose that I abandoned that I "should" have stayed the course on. We were all-in on Javascript with classic ASP at ConnectWise in the early days. We spent enormous energy removing it, just to see the world pivot back towards it.. well, if you were willing to wait 15 years.

Right and Wrong at Once

You can be both right and wrong about the same exact decision! And in fact, I'd say every good decision is eventually a bad one.

We all acclimate to the world we perceive of, which is our experience over the last 5 years or so. Except, the now has already changed, but as humans we can't update our intuition for another 5 years, by which point.. Now is always changing much faster than we think.

My mental model has always been "wow, I picked a winner there" or "man, I dodged a bullet there" but the "correct" model has always been to stay curious and never let your identity become attached to technology choices.

Have you rethought your priors? Are there any choices you have made that are the "right" choices for a time that no longer exists?